Introduction
India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood2. With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.
It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people. The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan4 and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy3, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.
Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”8. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.
Economy and emissions
India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2 and have continued to grow since.
The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 20099. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.
Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion
India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods2. There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia11.
Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line2.
Counting and countering emissions
India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 200710. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions2. Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.
Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 20307, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).
In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.
End Notes
1. World Bank, 2005
2. India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3. Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4. Forbes billionaires list 2010
5. United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6. CDIAC 2006
7. India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8. National Action Plan on Climate Change
9. CIA Factbook – India
10. International Energy Agency 2010.
11. IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
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